#406 - Guessing Game
We are trying to find a hidden number selected from the set of integers \(\{1, 2, \dots, n\}\) by asking questions.
Each number (question) we ask, we get one of three possible answers:
- "Your guess is lower than the hidden number" (and you incur a cost of \(a\)), or
- "Your guess is higher than the hidden number" (and you incur a cost of \(b\)), or
- "Yes, that's it!" (and the game ends).
Given the value of \(n\), \(a\), and \(b\), an optimal strategy minimizes the total cost for the worst possible case.
For example, if \(n = 5\), \(a = 2\), and \(b = 3\), then we may begin by asking "2" as our first question.
If we are told that 2 is higher than the hidden number (for a cost of b=3), then we are sure that "1" is the hidden number (for a total cost of 3).
If we are told that 2 is lower than the hidden number (for a cost of a=2), then our next question will be "4".
If we are told that 4 is higher than the hidden number (for a cost of b=3), then we are sure that "3" is the hidden number (for a total cost of 2+3=5).
If we are told that 4 is lower than the hidden number (for a cost of a=2), then we are sure that "5" is the hidden number (for a total cost of 2+2=4).
Thus, the worst-case cost achieved by this strategy is 5. It can also be shown that this is the lowest worst-case cost that can be achieved.
So, in fact, we have just described an optimal strategy for the given values of \(n\), \(a\), and \(b\).
Let \(C(n, a, b)\) be the worst-case cost achieved by an optimal strategy for the given values of \(n\), \(a\) and \(b\).
Here are a few examples:
\(C(5, 2, 3) = 5\)
\(C(500, \sqrt 2, \sqrt 3) = 13.22073197\dots\)
\(C(20000, 5, 7) = 82\)
\(C(2000000, \sqrt 5, \sqrt 7) = 49.63755955\dots\)
Let \(F_k\) be the Fibonacci numbers: \(F_k=F_{k-1}+F_{k-2}\) with base cases \(F_1=F_2= 1\).
Find \(\displaystyle \sum \limits_{k = 1}^{30} {C \left (10^{12}, \sqrt{k}, \sqrt{F_k} \right )}\), and give your answer rounded to 8 decimal places behind the decimal point.
Problem text © Project Euler, licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Original: projecteuler.net/problem=406. Published Sunday, 16th December 2012, 07:00 am. Solved by 467 members at time of mirroring.
Why this is useful
Numerical Computing. Precision, conditioning, and numerical iteration transfer directly to pricing engines and model calibration (Phases 5, 13, 15).
We classify relevance honestly - not every Euler problem is a trading application.
Prerequisites
Lessons that prepare you:
1.3 Proof Techniques: Direct, Contrapositive, and Contradiction · 10.4 Algorithms: Gradient Descent and Newton's Method · 10.1 Convex Sets and Convex Functions · 17.1 Python for Quants: NumPy, pandas, and Vectorization · 19.14 Computational Complexity, Feasibility Estimation, and Proving Algorithms Correct · 19.1 Divisibility, GCD, and the Euclidean Algorithm · 19.7 Dynamic Programming: Memoization and Tabulation · 19.4 Exact Arithmetic: Big Integers, Rationals, and Floating-Point Traps · 19.13 Matrix Exponentiation and Linear Recurrence Acceleration · 19.3 Modular Arithmetic, Inverses, and Fast Exponentiation · 19.6 Recurrence Relations and Generating Functions · 19.2 Primes, Sieves, and Integer Factorization · 2.4 Taylor Series and Local Approximation · 5.1 Floating-Point Arithmetic, Conditioning, and Stability
Recommended stepping-stone problems: #849 · #334 · #400
Concepts: dynamic-programming game-theory number-theory numerical-methods optimization brute-force-reduction
Likely techniques: hashing matrix-exponentiation precision-control
Learning mode
Pick how much scaffolding you want. Your choice is remembered per problem.
Understand the problem
- What exactly is the input to problem 406? Is it a bound (10^12), a supplied dataset, or a definition you must generate from?
- What is the required output - restate it precisely: a real number quoted to a stated precision, so the whole computation must control rounding error. Required format: give your answer rounded to 8 decimal places behind the decimal point.
- Which objects exactly are in scope, and which are excluded by the wording (strict vs non-strict inequality, 'distinct', 'proper', 'below' vs 'up to')?
- What do the arguments of C(n,a,b), C(5,2,3) mean, and what is the value's type (count, sum, probability)?
- What are the edge cases: the smallest legal object, zero/one, ties, and the boundary at exactly 10^12?
- Why is brute force hard HERE specifically? Estimate the number of candidates implied by 10^12 and the cost of testing one.
- Which game-theory fact would, if true, collapse the search - and can you state it as a testable claim before you look for a proof?
Predict & plan (before you code)
- Predict the strategy: in one sentence, what will your solution do? (The classification says game-theory / matrix-exponentiation - do you agree, and why?)
- Predict the complexity of your intended method in terms of N = 10^12, and the wall-clock time you expect. Write both down now.
- Predict the key data structure: what is stored, keyed by what, and how large will it get at full scale?
- Predict the failure mode: what is most likely to break - an off-by-one on the bound, a definition misread, precision, or memory?
- Predict the output of the small case from rung 3 BEFORE running it (the statement says: "For example, if n = 5, a = 2, and b = 3, then we may begin by asking " 2 " as our first question.") - then run it. A surprise here is worth more than an hour of debugging later.
Scratchpad
Mathematical notes, formulas, pseudocode, hypotheses, complexity notes. Saved automatically with your progress.
Python workbench
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Check your answer
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Progressive hints
Optimization
You have a correct answer. That is the start of the learning, not the end.
- Reduce the time complexity. What is the bottleneck, and what mathematical fact removes it?
- Reduce memory. Can you stream, or keep only the last k states?
- Replace brute force with a closed form, a sieve, a recurrence, or a symmetry argument.
- Prove the optimized version computes the same thing.
- Compare two implementations and time them.
Explain it
Which step of your solution were you least confident about, and what evidence would settle it?
What did you try first, and what specifically made you abandon it - a proof, a timing, or a wrong small-case answer?
Where did the game-theory structure do the real work? Name the single observation that collapsed the search space.
Could you have reached the matrix-exponentiation idea faster? Which words in the statement were pointing at it, and did you notice them?
What was the bug that cost you the most time, and what CLASS of bug was it (off-by-one, definition misread, precision, state under-specified)?
How would your solution change if the bound 10^12 were multiplied by 1000? Does it survive, or does it need a different idea?
What is the honest complexity of what you wrote (not what you intended), and where is the remaining slack?
Which problem you have already solved is this most similar to, and what is the shared skeleton - is it really 'matrix-exponentiation' underneath?
State the transferable technique in one sentence, without mentioning this problem's story at all.
Self-assess (mastery is not a correct number)
You reach Mastered only when you have solved it, rated yourself at least Solid across the dimensions, and written a real explanation.
Confidence
Low confidence schedules this problem for spaced review, even if you solved it.
Mastery check
- Variation: change the bound (or a rule) in the statement. Does your method still work? What breaks first?
- Constraints: if the limit were 10× larger, which step fails, and what would you replace it with?
- Related problem: #849 · #334 · #400
- Transfer: where else does this technique appear? Name a lesson and a real computational setting.
- Spaced re-attempt: come back after the review interval and re-solve it with no hints.