#602 - Product of Head Counts
Alice enlists the help of some friends to generate a random number, using a single unfair coin. She and her friends sit around a table and, starting with Alice, they take it in turns to toss the coin. Everyone keeps a count of how many heads they obtain individually. The process ends as soon as Alice obtains a Head. At this point, Alice multiplies all her friends' Head counts together to obtain her random number.
As an illustration, suppose Alice is assisted by Bob, Charlie, and Dawn, who are seated round the table in that order, and that they obtain the sequence of Head/Tail outcomes THHH - TTTT - THHT - H beginning and ending with Alice. Then Bob and Charlie each obtain 2 heads, and Dawn obtains 1 head. Alice's random number is therefore \(2\times 2\times 1 = 4\).
Define \(e(n, p)\) to be the expected value of Alice's random number, where \(n\) is the number of friends helping (excluding Alice herself), and \(p\) is the probability of the coin coming up Tails.
It turns out that, for any fixed \(n\), \(e(n, p)\) is always a polynomial in \(p\). For example, \(e(3, p) = p^3 + 4p^2 + p\).
Define \(c(n, k)\) to be the coefficient of \(p^k\) in the polynomial \(e(n, p)\). So \(c(3, 1) = 1\), \(c(3, 2) = 4\), and \(c(3, 3) = 1\).
You are given that \(c(100, 40) \equiv 986699437 \text{ } (\text{mod } 10^9+7)\).
Find \(c(10000000, 4000000) \mod 10^9+7\).
Problem text © Project Euler, licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Original: projecteuler.net/problem=602. Published Saturday, 6th May 2017, 10:00 pm. Solved by 612 members at time of mirroring.
Why this is useful
Probability Statistics. Expectation and state-based probability reasoning underpin pricing, risk, and statistical inference (Phases 7, 11, 13).
We classify relevance honestly - not every Euler problem is a trading application.
Prerequisites
Lessons that prepare you:
1.3 Proof Techniques: Direct, Contrapositive, and Contradiction · 1.1 Sets, Functions, and Relations · 13.2 Monte Carlo Estimation and Error Analysis · 19.14 Computational Complexity, Feasibility Estimation, and Proving Algorithms Correct · 19.1 Divisibility, GCD, and the Euclidean Algorithm · 19.3 Modular Arithmetic, Inverses, and Fast Exponentiation · 19.6 Recurrence Relations and Generating Functions · 19.2 Primes, Sieves, and Integer Factorization · 2.1 Functions, Limits, and Continuity · 2.7 Sequences, Series, Convergence, and Power Series · 2.4 Taylor Series and Local Approximation · 4.2 Linear Maps, Matrices, Rank, and the Null Space · 7.3 Independence, Conditional Probability, and Conditional Expectation · 7.2 Expectation, Moments, and Key Inequalities · 7.1 Probability Spaces, Random Variables, and Distributions
Recommended stepping-stone problems: #467 · #525 · #668
Concepts: algebra number-theory probability sequences-series brute-force-reduction
Likely techniques: modular-exponentiation polynomial
Learning mode
Pick how much scaffolding you want. Your choice is remembered per problem.
Understand the problem
- What exactly is the input to problem 602? Is it a bound (10^9), a supplied dataset, or a definition you must generate from?
- What is the required output - restate it precisely: a single residue (the answer is reduced modulo a given number, so keep everything in modular arithmetic from the start).
- Which objects exactly are in scope, and which are excluded by the wording (strict vs non-strict inequality, 'distinct', 'proper', 'below' vs 'up to')?
- What do the arguments of e(n,p), e(3,p) mean, and what is the value's type (count, sum, probability)?
- What are the edge cases: the smallest legal object, zero/one, ties, and the boundary at exactly 10^9?
- Why is brute force hard HERE specifically? Estimate the number of candidates implied by 10^9 and the cost of testing one.
- Which algebra fact would, if true, collapse the search - and can you state it as a testable claim before you look for a proof?
Predict & plan (before you code)
- Predict the strategy: in one sentence, what will your solution do? (The classification says algebra / modular-exponentiation - do you agree, and why?)
- Predict the complexity of your intended method in terms of N = 10^9, and the wall-clock time you expect. Write both down now.
- Predict the key data structure: what is stored, keyed by what, and how large will it get at full scale?
- Predict the failure mode: what is most likely to break - an off-by-one on the bound, a definition misread, precision, or memory?
- Predict the output of the small case from rung 3 BEFORE running it (the statement says: "For example, e(3, p) = p^3 + 4p^2 + p.") - then run it. A surprise here is worth more than an hour of debugging later.
Scratchpad
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Progressive hints
Optimization
You have a correct answer. That is the start of the learning, not the end.
- Reduce the time complexity. What is the bottleneck, and what mathematical fact removes it?
- Reduce memory. Can you stream, or keep only the last k states?
- Replace brute force with a closed form, a sieve, a recurrence, or a symmetry argument.
- Prove the optimized version computes the same thing.
- Compare two implementations and time them.
Explain it
Which step of your solution were you least confident about, and what evidence would settle it?
What did you try first, and what specifically made you abandon it - a proof, a timing, or a wrong small-case answer?
Where did the algebra structure do the real work? Name the single observation that collapsed the search space.
Could you have reached the modular-exponentiation idea faster? Which words in the statement were pointing at it, and did you notice them?
What was the bug that cost you the most time, and what CLASS of bug was it (off-by-one, definition misread, precision, state under-specified)?
How would your solution change if the bound 10^9 were multiplied by 1000? Does it survive, or does it need a different idea?
What is the honest complexity of what you wrote (not what you intended), and where is the remaining slack?
Which problem you have already solved is this most similar to, and what is the shared skeleton - is it really 'modular-exponentiation' underneath?
State the transferable technique in one sentence, without mentioning this problem's story at all.
Self-assess (mastery is not a correct number)
You reach Mastered only when you have solved it, rated yourself at least Solid across the dimensions, and written a real explanation.
Confidence
Low confidence schedules this problem for spaced review, even if you solved it.
Mastery check
- Variation: change the bound (or a rule) in the statement. Does your method still work? What breaks first?
- Constraints: if the limit were 10× larger, which step fails, and what would you replace it with?
- Related problem: #467 · #525 · #668
- Transfer: where else does this technique appear? Name a lesson and a real computational setting.
- Spaced re-attempt: come back after the review interval and re-solve it with no hints.