#869 - Prime Guessing
A prime is drawn uniformly from all primes not exceeding \(N\). The prime is written in binary notation, and a player tries to guess it bit-by-bit starting at the least significant bit. The player scores one point for each bit they guess correctly. Immediately after each guess, the player is informed whether their guess was correct, and also whether it was the last bit in the number - in which case the game is over.
Let \(E(N)\) be the expected number of points assuming that the player always guesses to maximize their score. For example, \(E(10)=2\), achievable by always guessing "1". You are also given \(E(30)=2.9\).
Find \(E(10^8)\). Give your answer rounded to eight digits after the decimal point.
Problem text © Project Euler, licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Original: projecteuler.net/problem=869. Published Saturday, 23rd December 2023, 01:00 pm. Solved by 917 members at time of mirroring.
Why this is useful
Probability Statistics. Expectation and state-based probability reasoning underpin pricing, risk, and statistical inference (Phases 7, 11, 13).
We classify relevance honestly - not every Euler problem is a trading application.
Prerequisites
Lessons that prepare you:
1.3 Proof Techniques: Direct, Contrapositive, and Contradiction · 10.4 Algorithms: Gradient Descent and Newton's Method · 10.1 Convex Sets and Convex Functions · 13.2 Monte Carlo Estimation and Error Analysis · 19.14 Computational Complexity, Feasibility Estimation, and Proving Algorithms Correct · 19.1 Divisibility, GCD, and the Euclidean Algorithm · 19.7 Dynamic Programming: Memoization and Tabulation · 19.4 Exact Arithmetic: Big Integers, Rationals, and Floating-Point Traps · 19.3 Modular Arithmetic, Inverses, and Fast Exponentiation · 19.2 Primes, Sieves, and Integer Factorization · 2.4 Taylor Series and Local Approximation · 5.1 Floating-Point Arithmetic, Conditioning, and Stability · 7.3 Independence, Conditional Probability, and Conditional Expectation · 7.2 Expectation, Moments, and Key Inequalities · 7.1 Probability Spaces, Random Variables, and Distributions
Recommended stepping-stone problems: #978 · #267 · #965
Concepts: game-theory number-theory numerical-methods optimization probability brute-force-reduction
Likely techniques: prime-test sieve
Learning mode
Pick how much scaffolding you want. Your choice is remembered per problem.
Understand the problem
- What exactly is the input to problem 869? Is it a bound (10^8), a supplied dataset, or a definition you must generate from?
- What is the required output - restate it precisely: a single exact integer. Required format: Give your answer rounded to eight digits after the decimal point.
- Which objects exactly are in scope, and which are excluded by the wording (strict vs non-strict inequality, 'distinct', 'proper', 'below' vs 'up to')?
- What do the arguments of E(N), E(10) mean, and what is the value's type (count, sum, probability)?
- What are the edge cases: the smallest legal object, zero/one, ties, and the boundary at exactly 10^8?
- Why is brute force hard HERE specifically? Estimate the number of candidates implied by 10^8 and the cost of testing one.
- Which probability fact would, if true, collapse the search - and can you state it as a testable claim before you look for a proof?
Predict & plan (before you code)
- Predict the strategy: in one sentence, what will your solution do? (The classification says probability / sieve - do you agree, and why?)
- Predict the complexity of your intended method in terms of N = 10^8, and the wall-clock time you expect. Write both down now.
- Predict the key data structure: what is stored, keyed by what, and how large will it get at full scale?
- Predict the failure mode: what is most likely to break - an off-by-one on the bound, a definition misread, precision, or memory?
- Predict the output of the small case from rung 3 BEFORE running it (the statement says: "For example, E(10)=2, achievable by always guessing "1".") - then run it. A surprise here is worth more than an hour of debugging later.
Scratchpad
Mathematical notes, formulas, pseudocode, hypotheses, complexity notes. Saved automatically with your progress.
Python workbench
Real Python (Pyodide) in a sandboxed Web Worker - no network, no filesystem, no DOM access. Ctrl/Cmd+Enter runs. Escape leaves the editor. Stop terminates the worker.
Check your answer
Answers are checked against a salted hash held in a separate file - not printed in this page. This prevents accidental spoilers; it is not cryptographic protection (see the build notes).
Progressive hints
Optimization
You have a correct answer. That is the start of the learning, not the end.
- Reduce the time complexity. What is the bottleneck, and what mathematical fact removes it?
- Reduce memory. Can you stream, or keep only the last k states?
- Replace brute force with a closed form, a sieve, a recurrence, or a symmetry argument.
- Prove the optimized version computes the same thing.
- Compare two implementations and time them.
Explain it
Which step of your solution were you least confident about, and what evidence would settle it?
What did you try first, and what specifically made you abandon it - a proof, a timing, or a wrong small-case answer?
Where did the probability structure do the real work? Name the single observation that collapsed the search space.
Could you have reached the sieve idea faster? Which words in the statement were pointing at it, and did you notice them?
What was the bug that cost you the most time, and what CLASS of bug was it (off-by-one, definition misread, precision, state under-specified)?
How would your solution change if the bound 10^8 were multiplied by 1000? Does it survive, or does it need a different idea?
What is the honest complexity of what you wrote (not what you intended), and where is the remaining slack?
Which problem you have already solved is this most similar to, and what is the shared skeleton - is it really 'sieve' underneath?
State the transferable technique in one sentence, without mentioning this problem's story at all.
Self-assess (mastery is not a correct number)
You reach Mastered only when you have solved it, rated yourself at least Solid across the dimensions, and written a real explanation.
Confidence
Low confidence schedules this problem for spaced review, even if you solved it.
Mastery check
- Variation: change the bound (or a rule) in the statement. Does your method still work? What breaks first?
- Constraints: if the limit were 10× larger, which step fails, and what would you replace it with?
- Related problem: #978 · #267 · #965
- Transfer: where else does this technique appear? Name a lesson and a real computational setting.
- Spaced re-attempt: come back after the review interval and re-solve it with no hints.